2012-13 NBA Preseason Rankings

With the new NBA season starting in just six days, here’s a look at my preseason rankings for the 2012-13 season. Here’s the article covering the lower half of the NBA and here’s the article on the league’s top 15 teams.

NBA Free Agency Update – July 16

For the latest news and analysis on all the action of NBA free agency over the last few days, check out my article via Reup Sports. Today’s post includes Jeremy Lin heading to Houston, Phoenix picking up Luis Scola, the ongoing battle for Nicolas Batum and more!

Pacers Advance

The Indiana Pacers eliminated the Orlando Magic with a 105-87 win at home in Game 5 last night to advance to the second round of the playoffs. A rocking crowd in the biggest basketball state in the country was there to cheer Indiana on to their first playoff series victory since 2005. The Pacers will now face the winner of the Miami Heat and the New York Knicks in the next round.

Danny Granger led the way for a playoff victory-deprived franchise, finishing with 25 points. Roy Hibbert didn’t have an exceptional game, but luckily for the Pacers, neither did Glen Davis, who had just 15 points and eight rebounds after being the Magic’s best offensive option through the first four games. George Hill and David West both reached double digits in scoring, but it was Darren Collison who ensured the Magic went home empty-handed, scoring 15 of his 19 points in the fourth quarter to turn Indiana’s two point deficit after three quarters into a rout. The Pacers outscored Orlando 36-16 in the fourth quarter and ran away with the game despite Jameer Nelson hitting five 3-pointers and leading the Magic with 27 points.

Glen Davis hurt the Pacers all series long, but couldn’t get it done in Game 5.

For Orlando, Glen Davis’ mediocre game really hurt their chances of extending the series, but the majority of these games could have been much closer had Ryan Anderson shown up. Anderson only scored 14 points in Game 4 and averaged just 8.5 ppg for the series on a team with no Dwight Howard and struggling perimeter shooters. The Magic were also hurt by Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu, who didn’t take many shots and missed the majority of them. Orlando surprised everyone with their Game 1 win in Indiana, but after getting that one victory to prove the world wrong and let everyone know they could play without Dwight Howard, they came back down to earth when the Pacers actually showed up for the next four games and revealed who the better team was. The battle between Dwight Howard and Stan Van Gundy over who will stay will likely be decided over the course of the next few months in the offseason, but Orlando had better hope they pick Superman. As good as Van Gundy is, he’s not more valuable than their superstar, which became clear after watching this series against a Pacers team that hasn’t exactly played lights out yet. While it’s unfortunate to suggest Orlando needs to pick their spoiled superstar over an extremely effective coach, the fact is that Van Gundy couldn’t elevate this team to the next level. Dwight Howard can. And if they do get rid of Howard, they’d better be sure to get another game changer who can lift this below-average squad back into playoff contention.

From Indiana’s side of things, they had pretty balanced scoring and really enjoyed the boost off the bench they got from Collison. They face a tough matchup in the second round, most likely against LeBron James and the Miami Heat. If the Knicks miraculously come back and take the series from Miami, Indiana has a much better shot of advancing, provided they limit Carmelo Anthony. Tyson Chandler will likely outplay Roy Hibbert but if David West can frustrate Amare Stoudemire, the Pacers have a better overall team. However, Miami will most likely advance, meaning the Pacers will have to do a few things to be competitive. Danny Granger will have to play lights out offensively and help with the boards. Paul George will have to find a way to use his length to bother LeBron while still contributing on the offensive end. George Hill and Darren Collison will have to keep up their recent level of production and demolish Miami’s guards. And Roy Hibbert will finally have to exploit his opponent’s lack of size to give his side some sort of advantage down low. David West and Chris Bosh will be a key matchup, but if Hibbert can dominate Miami’s bigs, the Pacers have a chance of competing with the Heat. The Pacers would also benefit from their bench outscoring Miami’s. In their series with New York, the Heat have gotten a small advantage from their bench and supporting cast with guys like Mario Chalmers, Shane Battier and Mike Miller hitting a few 3-pointers. This can’t happen to Indiana if they want to shock the world by knocking LeBron James out of the playoffs.

Danny Granger led the way for Indiana, but he’ll have to step it up even more next round.

Indiana Survives Orlando Comeback, Wins In Overtime

The Pacers survived a late Orlando rally and escaped Game 4 with a 101-99 victory in overtime to take a 3-1 lead on the series. Indiana made up for an embarrassing home loss to the Magic in their playoff opener by winning three straight, including both games in Orlando. The series now shifts back to Indiana and it looks like the Pacers will advance to the second round after edging Glen Davis and Jason Richardson in Game 4.

Although he missed a shot at the buzzer to send the game to double overtime, Glen Davis played another phenomenal game and somehow outperformed Roy Hibbert again, finishing with 24 points and 11 rebounds (compared to Hibbert’s 14 points and 11 rebounds). But even with Hibbert fouling out and Jason Richardson and the rest of Orlando’s perimeter guards hitting shots, the Magic were unable to get the win after erasing a 19-point deficit that the Pacers had built up with just over eight minutes to play. The Magic benefitted from much better outside shooting from Jason Richardson, who ended the night with 25 points, along with Hedo Turkoglu, who shot 50 percent. In fact, every one of Orlando’s starters finished in double digits, even though Jameer Nelson and Ryan Anderson struggled with their shooting. J.J. Reddick had 10 points, including a big 3-pointer late in regulation to tie the game up.

David West’s big game led the Pacers offensively in Game 4.

The Pacers built up a sizable third quarter advantage because of David West’s standout performance, leading Indiana with 26 points and 12 rebounds. Danny Granger fulfilled his role as a predominant scorer, finishing with 21 points and seven rebounds, but it was George Hill who ended up being the hero after scoring 11 of his 12 points in the fourth quarter and overtime to hold off Orlando’s desperate run. Hill hit two free throws with 2.2 seconds left to put his team ahead in overtime, which was followed by Glen Davis’ last-second attempt to tie the game and send it to double overtime. And although Paul George only scored two points, his good defense on Davis’ last second shot helped secure Indiana’s Game 4 victory since Roy Hibbert had fouled out.

With the series heading back to Indiana for a decisive Game 5, as long as the Pacers take care of business, they should finish the Magic off. Despite their success in Orlando, they want to finish this series at home and as quickly as possible. Unless the Magic have a stellar shooting night and Ryan Anderson actually shows up to play, the Pacers should run away with this one. Credit Stan Van Gundy and the Magic for competing for the majority of this series, but without Dwight Howard, they’re not a threatening playoff opponent. The Pacers will need to play much better if they advance (which is pretty much a guarantee at this point), but for now, as long as they take care of business at home, they will get a chance to rest before they take on the Heat in round 2 (unless the Knicks defy NBA history and miraculously come back from a 3-0 deficit).

Glen Davis is still eating up Roy Hibbert in the series, but Indiana got the win anyway.

Roy Hibbert Wakes Up

I’ve been pretty hard on Roy Hibbert so far in the Pacers-Magic series because of his inability to dominate Glen Davis and the Orlando frontcourt despite having a five-inch advantage on his opposition. But Hibbert finally came to life in Game 3 and the Pacers cruised to a 97-74 victory on the road. Coincidence? I think not.

After a shocking and all-around ugly loss at home in their playoff opener, Indiana desperately needed to regroup for Game 2. Danny Granger disappeared when his team needed his leadership the most and shot the ball poorly. Hibbert got a huge number of blocks and rebounded well, but he was still outplayed by Glen Davis. And to top it all off, the Pacers bench was nowhere to be found. But in Game 2, they played a much more cohesive and focused game to tie the series up before heading to Orlando. But before Game 3, the one piece of the puzzle that was still missing that prevented this series from being a massacre was Roy Hibbert. And after his 18-point, 10-rebound Game 3 performance, it’s safe to say the Pacers could finally be back on track.

Roy Hibbert may have finally shown up for the playoffs.

Danny Granger is the alpha dog for this team and Glen Davis is still finding ways to score, but as long as Hibbert continues to rebound and put points on the scoreboard consistently, he should be able to at least balance Davis out. There’s no reason for Glen Davis to have outplayed Hibbert offensively in this series so far, but as long as Hibbert handles the defensive end by rebounding, contesting shots and possibly limiting Davis’ scoring, he’ll have done his job to help Indiana advance past this weaker Orlando team. Paul George and George Hill have been playing better and are consistently scoring, Danny Granger will continue to rack up points as long as he keeps shooting and even Darren Collison reached double figures in Game 3. So as long as Roy Hibbert holds up his end of the bargain by showing up every night (which really isn’t too much to ask considering the size advantage he has on Orlando’s back line), the Pacers should win this series in five games, six at the most.

On the Orlando side of things, Roy Hibbert’s Game 3 performance is pretty much a playoff death sentence. The Magic’s perimeter shooters (Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu) haven’t been able to get anything going since Game 1, Ryan Anderson has tremendously struggled shooting the ball and Jameer Nelson is scoring, but not consistently enough to be a real threat. J.J. Reddick has done well off the bench, but considering their starters’ inability to score outside of Glen Davis, this Magic team that had so much to play for in Game 1 is in serious trouble, even with Game 4 in Orlando tomorrow. Danny Granger will get his 20+ points per game, Paul George and George Hill are on the uprise and David West is a threat to have a good scoring night every game, which is why the Pacers have taken a 2-1 lead on the series. But if Roy Hibbert can lend his offensive talent to his defensive work so far, there is no possible way for Orlando to win this series.

Ryan Anderson has had a rough series so far. The Magic might be done at this point.

Indiana Back on Pace

An all-around team effort and a third quarter surge gave the Indiana Pacers a much-needed 93-78 win at home in Game 2. The Pacers looked more like the hot team that entered the playoffs winning 12 of their last 15 games instead of the tentative and weak team that took the court in Orlando’s Game 1 victory. Indiana had three players score 18 points (Danny Granger, David West and George Hill) and five players score in double digits, including Leandro Barbosa, who was one of many role players to disappear in the playoff opener. They looked like a much more coherent unit and got a crucial home win, tying the series, 1-1.

However, the Magic still have a few reason to keep their heads up and Indiana should definitely not feel too comfortable. Because even though the Pacers returned to balanced scoring and played better defense, Roy Hibbert is nowhere to be found so far in the postseason. Hibbert pulled in 13 rebounds, but scored only four points on Orlando’s center Glen Davis, who is five inches shorter. In fact, Davis dominated Hibbert on both sides of the floor again in Game 2, finishing with 18 points and 10 rebounds to lead the Magic. If Orlando’s perimeter shots had been falling, this would have been a much more competitive game. Hibbert will need to show up and be an advantage down low for the Pacers at some point, especially with the series going back to Orlando now.

Glen Davis had outplayed Roy Hibbert so far. Indiana needs that to stop.

Another factor that could be troubling as this series plays out is how Indiana plays in a close game on the road. Granger and the rest of the Pacers looked mortified down the stretch of Game 1 and that was at home. So if Indiana becomes locked in a close game with this dangerous 3-point shooting team, the third-seeded Pacers could have problems. Finally, shooting better shots is a definite issue for this team. Granger had 18 points, but went 1-for-10 from 3-point range. When the shots aren’t falling, you’d like to see your team’s leading scorer figure it out quicker and start attacking the basket.

All things considered, Game 2 was an expected win for the Pacers after being upset and embarrassed by an undermanned Magic team at home in Game 1. However, it’s significance shouldn’t be downplayed; this was an extremely important game with the series going back to Orlando. Indiana really needs to win both games in Orlando coming up so they can put the series away at home, but the Magic have too much pride, the city of Orlando has too much to cheer for, and now Glen Davis and company have had a wakeup call that they can’t win on raw emotion and playing for their coach alone. Expect them to be more focused and protect their home court for at least one game. It’s surprising that this series could potentially go to six or seven games after Indiana dropped its home opener, but give Orlando credit for competing. I picked Indiana as my sleeper team a long time ago and I still stand by that prediction, but so far, the Pacers have not been playing good enough basketball to go anywhere beyond the first round.

George Hill had a solid performance for the Pacers. If Hibbert continues to disappear, Indiana will need more from him.

Van Gundy Works His Magic

Derrick Rose’s ACL tear and Miami’s blowout on the Knicks were big headlines today, but the Indiana Pacers losing Game 1 at home to the Howard-less Magic should make its own major headlines. I predicted the Pacers would sweep, but Stan Van Gundy and the Magic had other plans. After listening to how guaranteed Indiana’s victory was over the past few days, it’s no surprise Orlando came out fired up. They’ve had a tumultuous season dealing with Dwight Howard’s melodrama and the disunity between him and their coach, but with Howard out, this team has galvanized and now play for each other. Which is probably a big reason why they rallied from a seven-point deficit in the fourth quarter to win 81-77.

But the biggest reason the Magic won is that the Pacers looked like they took this game, and possibly even the whole series, for granted. Indiana was outscored 11-0 in the game’s final minutes and they blew their lead and the game. Nobody could hit a shot, the offense went stagnant and they left shooters like Jason Richardson wide open. But worst of all was Danny Granger completely falling apart. I picked Granger as a top player to watch in the playoffs this year as he became the driving force behind a hot Pacers squad. But when his team needed him most, he not only disappeared, he actually made them worse. He couldn’t get shots close to the rim to go, he missed two critical free throws, he had two terrible turnovers at the worst possible times (a backcourt violation and a travel with the game on the line) and none of this would have been completely terrible if he didn’t look completely timid and indecisive the whole time. Granger turned into a deer in the headlights during the entire fourth quarter, especially when Orlando started to make its run.

Glen Davis outplayed Roy Hibbert as the Magic shocked the Pacers at home.

The Pacers need Granger to score more than 17 points a game, especially when Leandro Barbosa and Roy Hibbert score a combined 11 points. Hibbert has a ridiculous size advantage on Glen Davis and Ryan Anderson, so scoring 8 points is absolutely pathetic, especially when you throw in the fact that Davis pushed him around all game and the Pacers barely won the rebound battle, 35-34. Hibbert absolutely needs to regroup and come out with a vengeance in Game 2, regardless of his 9 blocks. In fact, David West is the only player on the Pacers who looked okay, but he disappeared down the stretch too. Paul George missed critical wide open 3-pointers down the stretch and George Hill didn’t have much of an impact after looking so impressive when he was moved into the starting lineup. But even with everyone else disappearing, the majority of the blame should still be placed on Danny Granger for this awful performance. Until Granger learns how to take control and be a crunch-time player in close games, the Pacers will never be the dark horse in the East they could be.

Granted, the Magic did have to play exceptionally well to get the win. Jason Richardson hit five 3-pointers, which doesn’t happen every day. The entire Pacers team had to completely collapse and miss all of their shots over the last few minutes for Orlando to have a chance to come back. And while Orlando’s heart in playing for each other and for their coach to defy everyone’s expectations is inspiring, I can’t say with certainty that this team can play at this level over the course of a seven-game series. The Pacers shot 34.5 percent from the floor and finished with 77 points. The Magic only scored 81 points. This was Indiana’s game to lose and they lost it in extremely underwhelming fashion. But I don’t think any of these things will happen again. So even though my prediction that the Pacers would sweep looks pretty bad right now, I’m still picking Indiana to win the series in 5 or 6 games. But they’re definitely on upset alert right now.

If this shot was in the 4th quarter, Granger probably missed it. Indiana can't afford for him to disappear.