With the new NBA season starting in just six days, here’s a look at my preseason rankings for the 2012-13 season. Here’s the article covering the lower half of the NBA and here’s the article on the league’s top 15 teams.
As is the case with free agency every year, it’s been a busy week filled with headlines for numerous stars and the smaller pieces that might go unnoticed. Here’s a quick recap of the major deals and rumors that have gone down in the past week.
Hawks Trade Joe Johnson to Brooklyn Nets:
I already covered this one earlier today, but the Hawks sent their All-Star guard and his not-so-All-Star contract to Brooklyn in exchange for the majority of the Nets’ bench and a future first round pick. Atlanta finally accepted Johnson and Josh Smith weren’t working out and the overpaid Johnson left for Brooklyn in exchange for Jordan Farmar, Anthony Morrow, Johan Petro, Jordan Williams and DeStawn Stevenson. The Hawks are looking like they’ll struggle during the 2012-13 season, but their next acquisition might help a little bit.
Hawks Acquire Devin Harris from Utah Jazz Trade:
Don’t get too excited, Atlanta. You’re still going to be sorry next season, but at least the acquisition of Devin Harris from Utah will ease the incredible burden that’s been placed on Josh Smith’s shoulders. The Hawks sent Marvin Williams to the Jazz in exchange for Utah’s inconsistent point guard as Atlanta’s new GM Danny Ferry has wasted no time making his intentions clear: getting rid of the the organization’s two peskiest (and overpriced) contracts in Johnson and Williams. With so much money being cleared out, the Hawks are clearly trying to make room to make big moves, possibly for Dwight Howard or Chris Paul should he not resign with the Clippers. Whether high-caliber moves such as these happen this offseason or the next remains to be seen, but Ferry has done an excellent job with these two moves to ensure the Hawks see long term growth. Plus, Harris isn’t a shabby point guard and can certainly help a team out with 3-point shooting when his shot is on. His streaky shooting and overall inconsistent play makes him a bit of a gamble from week to week, but the Hawks need a revival and certainly got the upper hand of this trade with Utah. The move is particularly curious for the Jazz, who gain little from shopping their starting point guard for a former number two draft pick who hasn’t ever lived up to expectations.
Deron Williams Still Undecided:
At first, Brooklyn’s trade with Atlanta for Joe Johnson was contingent upon whether or not Williams resigned with the Nets. However, the deal went through anyway, leaving the Nets in limbo waiting for their All-Star point guard to decide between resigning or heading to his hometown of Dallas to play with Dirk Nowitzki on the Mavericks. Williams is likely to make his decision known within the next one or two days, either liberating Brooklyn from the ever-growing concern they might only be left with Joe Johnson’s ridiculous contract or turning Dallas into a much more dangerous force in the West. We’ve already been over what the Nets would look like in the backcourt with Johnson and D-Will, but if the Mavericks get their hands on Brooklyn’s star point guard, the combination of Williams and Dirk could get interesting.
Lamar Odom Goes To Clippers:
A few days ago, the LA Clippers and Dallas Mavericks worked out a deal that sends Lamar Odom back to his former team in exchange for Mo Williams. As part of a four-team trade, Odom will try to restart his career where it began in Los Angeles as Williams moves on to the Utah Jazz. I don’t see the move as a good one for the Clippers for the time being, but if Odom can play more like the Sixth Man of the Year that he once was, it could prove to be beneficial in the long run. The acquisition of Williams for the Jazz meant they had an extra guard, which might help explain why Devin Harris was shopped for Marvin Williams.
Bulls Looking for Veteran Guards:
With Derrick Rose likely missing a significant chunk of the next NBA season, it’s no surprise the Bulls are looking for veteran guards who won’t eat up too much money and can step in to take over while their star point guard recuperates. The Bulls have already reached out to Derek Fisher and Brandon Roy and while there are no solid deals to report on yet, keep your eye on this one. Fisher is also being pursued by the Thunder, Heat and Mavericks while Roy is fielding offers from several teams as well.
Celtics Hoping to Resign Allen, Bass, Green:
Despite the popular opinion that Ray Allen will be in a Miami Heat uniform next season, Danny Ainge has said that the Celtics are making resigning Allen a priority, along with Brandon Bass and Jeff Green, who may be able to return to Boston as a free agent. While the possibility of resigning all three of these Boston regulars may be difficult, I wouldn’t doubt that they get their hands on at least two of those three. Allen has been offered deals with Miami and the Memphis Grizzlies, but would make the most money if he stayed in Boston. It will come down to whether or not he believes he can win with Miami and whether or not he’d be willing to take a pay cut to do so, but for the time being, nothing has been decided regarding Allen, Bass or Green yet.
Dwight Howard Drama Continues:
Dwight Howard came out and said there’s only one team on his list earlier this week, and although he wouldn’t say outright that it was the Nets, no one else seemed capable of being that team if not Brooklyn. Until yesterday, that is, when the Nets basically took their names out of the Howard sweepstakes with an ill-advised trade for Johnson, who will take up a considerable chunk of cap space. The Mavericks and Hawks are both clearing room for big offseason acquisitions, so Howard might want to think about adding more teams to his stubbornly short list. Howard said if he doesn’t get traded to the one team on his list, he would play the season out and then explore free agency, although the choice is not his to make if the Magic decide to shop him.
Steve Nash’s Future Still Unclear:
The Toronto Raptors made Nash a 3-year offer, which Phoenix seems unwilling to do at this point. The Suns are leaning toward a 2-year deal if their All-Star point guard stays, but with the drafting of Kendall Marshall, they seem to be preparing for the worst. Nash says he is keeping his options open, which is a smart decision considering his large number of suitors, which includes the Knicks, Mavericks, Raptors and Suns. At this point it seems more and more unlikely Nash will stay in Phoenix, but to leave one non-contender for another doesn’t seem like something an aging veteran in search of his first title would do (ruling out Toronto).
Roy Hibbert Offered Deal by Portland:
The Portland Trail Blazers are looking to strengthen their frontcourt even further after offering All-Star center Roy Hibbert a four-year deal for $58 million. The Blazers went through a major upheaval last season and had a disappointing year but adding Hibbert to LaMarcus Aldridge would form a formidable team in the paint, especially with rookie Meyers Leonard likely coming off the bench. However, if Hibbert is smart (and not motivated primarily by money), he’ll stay in Indiana. After such a disappointing playoff performance with the Pacers, Hibbert definitely has something to prove to his team, a squad that can actually contend in the East if they continue to mature.
That’s all for now, but keep checking back for the latest free agency news and analysis.
The Clippers were already down 2-0 and needed to play desperate. They had been dominated on their opponent’s court but now had the chance to play at home to try and gain some momentum back. For awhile, it looked like Los Angeles was going to shorten the series deficit to 2-1 after they jumped out to an immediate 33-11 lead at the end of the first quarter. They even built their lead up to 24 in the second. But even with all of that going their way, the Clippers still couldn’t overcome the resilient and offensively charged San Antonio Spurs, who used a 24-0 run in the third quarter to battle back and snag a 3-0 series lead with a 96-86 victory in Game 3.
Tony Parker led the Spurs with 23 points and 10 assists and Tim Duncan finished with 19 points, 13 rebounds and three blocks after a prolific third quarter. Kawhi Leonard had 14 and Manu Ginobili added 13 off the bench. Despite San Antonio’s incredibly slow start, Greg Popovich’s squad picked it up after a dreadful first quarter and outscored the Clippers in each of the following three. The Spurs cut Los Angeles’ lead to 10 at halftime and then took a commanding lead in the third by outscoring Lob City 26-8 in the period. The Clippers’ awful shooting and numerous turnovers gave San Antonio the edge in the third and facing an eight point deficit entering the final period, LAC wasn’t able to regroup and challenge the Spurs’ lead the rest of the way.
Blake Griffin had a phenomenal game for Los Angeles, finishing with 28 points, 16 rebounds, two blocks and two steals. Unfortunately, he received little help from his teammates other than Mo Williams, who had 19. Caron Butler failed to score, Randy Foye only put up seven and Nick Young couldn’t make up for either of them with just nine. But the biggest disappointment, once again, was Chris Paul. Paul has a reputation for his indomitable will and his ability to turn any team into a contender during the playoffs. Against the San Antonio Spurs, however, he has been completely and unequivocally outplayed by Tony Parker. Paul finished with 12 points and 10 assists, which isn’t a shameful stat line by any means, but for CP3? That’s nowhere near enough. The Clippers have only had one consistent scorer in this series (Griffin) while their role player/bench guards alternate having good games (Foye, Williams and Young). Without Chris Paul scoring 20+ a game, it’s amazing Lob City has been within reach in a few of these games. The Spurs are certainly looking like the toughest team in the Western Conference and, based on what I’ve seen from around the league in the past few days, are my heavy favorites to win the NBA Finals at the moment. However, they’ve definitely benefitted from Paul’s disappearance during this series.
There really is no hope for the Clippers this season any more. On the one hand, it’s impressive they were able to make it this far in their first year together after some major roster improvements and upheavals. Lob City should be commended for entertaining us all year long with YouTube highlights, for reaching the second round with such a terrible coach as Vinny Del Negro and for doing all of this without Chauncey Billups or a quality offensive center (sorry, DeAndre Jordan, you just haven’t panned out like we hoped). It will be interesting to see how good this team can be with Billups back, especially if LAC can find a way to improve at the small forward and center positions. We should all definitely keep an eye on this team next year. But in the end, losing Game 3 was pretty much the nail in the coffin and after such a monumental/demoralizing comeback/collapse, I’m predicting a sweep. Tony Parker has continued his postseason dominance, outplaying one of the best point guards in NBA history. Tim Duncan has found a way through stellar technique and perseverance to outplay younger and more athletic power forwards and centers. And the Spurs’ bench is just too much for any defense to handle right now. So at the end of the day, the outcome of Game 4 doesn’t really matter. The Spurs would certainly like to win and get more rest, but even if Chris Paul finally does show up and the Clippers get a W at home, San Antonio has this series in the bag already.
Credit the Los Angeles Clippers for withstanding a few runs from San Antonio and a frenzied home crowd, but the Spurs would not be denied and, like they have for the majority of the postseason, eventually overpowered their opponent. The Spurs didn’t have a breakout quarter to extend the lead, but outscored the Clippers in three quarters by at least six points and steadily built a sizable lead that LAC couldn’t overcome, resulting in a convincing 105-88 victory.
Tony Parker led San Antonio with 22 points, five rebounds and five assists on his 30th birthday and Tim Duncan followed up with 18 points and five rebounds. The Spurs’ depth and balanced scoring was also on full display in Game 2: Boris Diaw had 16 points, Daniel Green had 13 off of four 4-pointers, Manu Ginobili chipped in 10 and Tiago Splitter added nine. Meanwhile, Chris Paul’s offensive struggles continued as CP3 only managed 10 points and five assists on 4-of-9 shooting. Blake Griffin led LA with 20 points and Randy Foye had 11, but no one else reached double digits for the Clippers. Mo Williams, Nick Young and Caron Butler had nine apiece, but it wasn’t enough to provide a legitimate threat to San Antonio.
The Spurs controlled the tempo and flow of the game and the outcome was never really in doubt. The Clippers have done an excellent job of weathering the storm and haven’t crumbled under the pressure of some of San Antonio’s most impressive scoring sprees, but they also haven’t been able to provide a real challenge yet. That might have something to do with the Spurs’ home court advantage, but the Clippers haven’t been able to take a lead and sustain it in this series so far. So event though they aren’t getting completely demolished like the Utah Jazz were in the first round, unless the Clippers can find some way to even the series back in Los Angeles, the Spurs will be too offensively dominant to beat.
Chris Paul absolutely has to pick up his game with back-to-back games coming up at Staples Center. Paul has been virtually nonexistent and the Clippers can’t afford for Tony Parker to outplay him, which has been the case for this series so far. Blake Griffin improved in Game 2, but no one else was able to contribute enough to keep this one close. It will take a concentrated defensive effort, a few more missed shots from San Antonio and a collectively improved offensive night from LAC to make Games 3 and 4 competitive. But at this point, the Spurs are on fire and have a wide array of scorers that can catch fire at any time. They pass the ball well and have all the pieces of a championship team that everyone in the West should be wary of.
The Los Angeles Clippers showed great resilience and determination in their big road win against the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 7 just a few days ago, but it doesn’t get any easier for them from here. Chris Paul and the Clips now face the offensive juggernaut that is the San Antonio Spurs in the second round, and you can be guarantees they will provide a much more difficult challenge for this talented team in its first year together.
Unfortunately for fans of Lob City, the Spurs will present numerous matchup problems for LAC. Chris Paul has an advantage over Tony Parker, but San Antonio’s depth will not be easy for the Clippers to overcome. Blake Griffin would normally be a challenge for the aging Tim Duncan to handle, but it’s still unclear how healthy Griffin will be for this series. The Spurs’ biggest weakness is talented post players, but Griffin’s post play is limited to his athleticism and high-flying dunks, which will be pretty limited if he’s not 100 percent. And because Duncan will still produce on offense, Griffin doesn’t constitute enough of a challenge from the Clippers in the paint, especially considering how offensively inept DeAndre Jordan, Reggie Evans and Kenyon Martin have been at times during the postseason.
To be competitive in this series, the Clippers will need to play stellar defense and find a way to slow down this well-oiled offensive machine. That requires a strong defensive effort from the entire roster, because San Antonio’s offense doesn’t ever slow down with their starters on the bench. Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Tony Parker and the other big names of this series have excelled in the three meetings between these two teams during the regular season (San Antonio went 2-1), so this series will come down to which role players and supporting cast outplays the other. Everyone knows Manu Ginobili is a threat, but guys like Stephen Jackson, Boris Diaw, Gary Neal, Matt Bonner, Tiago Splitter and Daniel Green can all put points on the board. The Spurs’ bench is fully capable of extending leads against opposing teams’ supporting casts with a barrage of 3-pointers and good ball movement. So if the Clippers’ bench can’t keep up or gain a clear advantage from their starting lineup, they will have rough time competing in the series.
You can never count out Chris Paul in the playoffs, but if Blake Griffin is anything less than 100 percent, the Clippers are going to struggle against the Spurs’ balance scoring and depth. Los Angeles will be able to do a better job of keeping Tony Parker from penetrating than Utah did, but he will still find a way to facilitate and with so many perimeter and post options to choose from, the Spurs are extremely difficult to guard. Los Angeles needs a constant high level of production from guys like Caron Butler, Mo Williams, Randy Foye and Nick Young, who have all had big nights in the playoffs but haven’t been able to consistently do so. The Clippers have a promising future and will hopefully receive a huge boost next year when Chauncey Billups returns to the floor, but they don’t match up well with the Spurs and will likely not be able to overcome San Antonio’s depth.
Prediction: San Antonio over Los Angeles in 5 games
The Los Angeles Clippers had all the momentum heading into Game 5, but the Memphis Grizzlies played their patented style of basketball and forced another game with a 92-80 win last night. It took almost an entire series, but the Memphis Grizzlies finally returned to operating through their talented post players instead of Rudy Gay, making them a very dangerous team. Marc Gasol, who was averaging just 10.3 ppg heading into last night’s potential elimination game, finally got involved on offense and led the Grizzlies with 23 points. Zach Randolph, who has failed to live up to his heroic playoff performance last year, notched a double double with 19 points and 10 rebounds. And Rudy Gay, who had been hoisting up 17.8 shots per game, only put up 14 as Memphis seemed to remember what made them so effective in the postseason last year: operating through their skilled bigs.
When the Grizzlies’ frontcourt shows up to play, they are incredibly tough to beat. So far, Los Angeles has benefitted from a Memphis offense consisting of Rudy Gay jacking up a bunch of perimeter shots. They also have outlasted surprisingly proficient scoring nights from Mike Conley. But last night, Marc Gasol finally played well against the Clippers’ Reggie Evans, who has been a defensive nightmare for the Grizzlies up to this point. So even though Conley and Gay only scored a combined 23, Memphis still came out on top after their sizable lead dwindled down to just six points with less than a minute to play. The Grizzlies had surrendered large leads in the fourth quarter but were finally able to hang on to one and extend the series to six games. However, as helpful as it was for the Grizzlies to revert back to what makes them a dangerous playoff team, they did receive a little bit of help from Los Angeles, especially in the fourth quarter. Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, who have been the two most dominant players on the court so far in the series, both missed time in the decisive fourth quarter because of injuries. Paul strained his right hip flexor and Griffin sprained his left knee. With the Clippers’ two best players in and out, it’s no surprise the Grizzlies were able to hold off a late Los Angeles run.
With the series shifting back to LA for Game 6, the Clippers absolutely need to finish this series off at home. Which means CP3 and Griffin will have to be able to play like they are 100 percent healthy. It’s no question about whether or not these two will take the floor tomorrow night; but whether they will be effective or not is a pretty serious issue. Outside of Paul and Griffin, this Clippers team can’t hold off the Grizzlies, especially if they continue to play like they did yesterday. Mo Williams led Los Angeles with 20 points and Randy Foye pitched in 11 yesterday, but the Clippers can’t contend unless Griffin and Paul are both putting up 20-30 points every night. The Grizzlies have confidence and they’ve gone back to the style of play they’ve been missing for this entire series. If Paul and Griffin can’t do what they normally do, the Clippers are in serious danger of dropping the series.
For the Clippers to win, they need Paul and Griffin to be healthy and continue to do what they do best. But they also need continued production from guys like Mo Williams, Caron Butler and Randy Foye. And although Reggie Evans doesn’t have a knack for scoring, he should be starting over DeAndre Jordan by now, because if he can irritate Gasol and shut him down like he has for the majority of this series, the Grizzlies will come up short again. From Memphis’ perspective, they need to operate through their big men just like they did in Game 5. You’d like to see Rudy Gay and Mike Conley get a little bit more involved on offense, but Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol still need to be the main focus here. Another thing the Grizzlies will focus on doing is using their scrappy defense to force turnovers again. After leading the league in steals, Memphis needs to put pressure on Chris Paul and the rest of the Clippers’ point guards and turn defense into offense. Finally, the Grizzlies would really be in good shape if they could get anything more out of O.J. Mayo. Mayo put up 18.5 ppg in the Grizzlies’ first two playoff games but has averaged just 5.7 in the last three. So even though Quincy Pondexter has been a nice surprise off the bench, they’ll need Mayo to start contributing again if they want to be a serious contender.
Blake Griffin may have led the Clippers with 30 points in their overtime win over the Grizzlies, but it was Chris Paul’s complete command over the game and control down the stretch that gave Los Angeles a 3-0 series lead in a huge Game 4 victory.
Mike Conley and Rudy Gay kept Memphis in the game as they erased a 10 point deficit with just under five minutes to play in regulation, but Chris Paul completely took over in the game’s final period. He finished with 27 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists while minimizing turnovers to keep the Grizzlies from capitalizing. After failing to score at the end of the fourth quarter, Paul made up for it by scoring eight of the Clippers’ 14 points in the extra period. He committed only two turnovers and LAC only had nine total. Turnovers had been a huge advantage for the Grizzlies up to this point as they had been able to get a large number of steals and turn defense into offense. The Clips weren’t perfect and they still struggled with from the free throw line (missing 12 of 30), but they made them when it mattered most. Mo Williams sank two big ones with seven seconds left in OT, giving his team a four-point advantage and putting the game out of reach.
The Clippers basically did everything I wrote about in my last post that they needed to in order to win. They hit free throws at the end of the game and they minimized turnovers. They didn’t get as much out of their bench as they’ll need if they advance to the next round against the Spurs, but it was still enough to beat the Grizzlies and take a 3-1 lead. Memphis, on the other hand, failed to fix what has prevented them from getting wins in this series so far: they didn’t turn Los Angeles over, they didn’t put up a consistent effort over a full four quarters and O.J. Mayo failed to contribute for the second game in a row. Rudy Gay had 23 points, but shot just 8-of-25 from the field. Mike Conley led the Grizzlies with a big offensive night, racking up 25 points, eight assists and seven rebounds while Zach Randolph pitched in 12 points and nine rebounds. Other than that, Memphis didn’t get much help on offense: Marc Gasol only had eight, Tony Allen had six and Marreese Speights only put up nine.
With the series shifting back to Memphis for a potential elimination game, the Grizzlies will need O.J. Mayo to score more than five points. They’ll need Speights to turn back into an effective power forward despite shortened minutes. They’ll need Marc Gasol to wake up and shoot more than four shots. They’ll need Mike Conley to play exactly the same and hope that Rudy Gay can be more efficient with his shooting. But most of all, they’ll have to bring everything they’ve got for four full quarters. Because even though it took a few games for Chris Paul to get warmed up, he’s fully on fire right now and it’s going to take a lot to down this Clippers team now. And don’t forget about Blake Griffin, who had 30 points, seven assists and five rebounds in Game 4 and is averaging 21.5 ppg in his first postseason. In addition to their two best players, the Clippers also benefit from Caron Butler being back on the floor. He struggled in his first game back but had 14 points in Game 4. If LAC can get consistent play from Randy Foye, Mo Williams, and/or Nick Young, they will be pretty tough to beat in this round and the next.